Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 13

Lens–Strasbourg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'LensI. Ganiou (assist: M. Udol)
77'StrasbourgV. Barco · red card
90+5'LensM. Guilavogui · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lens		Strasbourg
13	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
552	Passes	461
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lens 1.71 · Strasbourg 1.28. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Lens 13 · Strasbourg 7; on target 5 and 1.
Lens kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jérôme Brisard, France→

5.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “Strasbourg to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Lens, 1.31 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,101 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lens to win45.6%

Draw25.8%

Strasbourg to win28.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lens lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time43.4%

Strasbourg lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lens ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Strasbourg ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1101 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lens: at least 13Actual: 13
Strasbourg: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Lens: at least 5Actual: 3
Strasbourg: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lens score1.71

Attack: Lens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score1.28

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.