Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 12

Lorient–Toulouse

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'LorientP. Pagis (penalty)
65'ToulouseD. Sidibe (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lorient		Toulouse
10	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
399	Passes	413
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lorient 1.37 · Toulouse 1.43. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Lorient 10 · Toulouse 6; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Toulouse to win”. Second comes “Lorient to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Lorient, 1.32 for Toulouse.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lorient to win31.0%

Draw29.2%

Toulouse to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lorient lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Toulouse lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lorient ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Toulouse ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1095 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lorient: at least 10Actual: 6
Toulouse: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Lorient: at least 4Actual: 6
Toulouse: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lorient score1.37

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Toulouse's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Toulouse score1.43

Attack: Toulouse score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.4%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.