Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 12

Le Havre–Nantes

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'NantesM. Abline (assist: K. Amian)
90'Le HavreG. Lloris (assist: F. Doucouré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Nantes
17	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
470	Passes	266
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.63 · Nantes 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Le Havre 17 · Nantes 5; on target 4 and 2.
Le Havre kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Romain Lissorgue, France→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Le Havre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Le Havre, 0.91 for Nantes.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Le Havre win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,093 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win51.8%

Draw27.4%

Nantes to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Le Havre lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time43.8%

Nantes lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Nantes ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1093 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 15
Nantes: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Le Havre: at least 5Actual: 8
Nantes: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.63

Attack: Le Havre score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nantes score1.05

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.6%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.