Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 11

Stade Brestois 29–Lyon

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'LyonH. Hateboer · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Lyon
13	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
12	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
383	Passes	411
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.40 · Lyon 1.63. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 13 · Lyon 4; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Clement Turpin, France→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.46 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (X2 — draw or Lyon win).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win27.8%

Draw28.1%

Lyon to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time40.0%

Lyon lead at half-time35.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level64.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Lyon ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 19
Lyon: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 12
Lyon: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.40

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.63

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–110.2%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.