Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 11

Paris Saint Germain–Nice

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Paris Saint GermainGonçalo Ramos (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Nice
28	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
77%	Possession	23%
805	Passes	247
760	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.26 · Nice 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 28 · Nice 5; on target 8 and 2.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

François Letexier, France→

6.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.3%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.93 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.71 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 94.9% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,082 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win83.3%

Draw11.6%

Nice to win5.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time39.5%

Nice lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Nice ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1082 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 12
Nice: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 11
Nice: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.26

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score0.92

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.5%2–011.5%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.