Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 9

Lens–Marseille

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 19:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'MarseilleMason Greenwood (assist: T. Weah)
23'LensO. Edouard (penalty)
53'LensBenjamin Pavard (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lens		Marseille
8	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
339	Passes	762
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lens 1.43 · Marseille 1.49. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Lens 8 · Marseille 17; on target 5 and 3.
Marseille kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Stephanie Frappart, France→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “Marseille to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Lens, 1.43 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lens to win37.7%

Draw26.7%

Marseille to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Lens lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time43.1%

Marseille lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lens ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lens: at least 11Actual: 12
Marseille: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Lens: at least 4Actual: 4
Marseille: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lens score1.43

Attack: Lens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Marseille concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.49

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Lens concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.