Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 8

Rennes–Auxerre

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'AuxerreD. Namaso
18'RennesB. Embolo (assist: Ludovic Blas)
56'RennesS. Fofana (assist: Esteban Lepaul)
72'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rennes		Auxerre
19	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
418	Passes	395
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rennes 1.72 · Auxerre 1.08. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Rennes 19 · Auxerre 7; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Eric Wattellier, France→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Rennes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Rennes, 1.09 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Rennes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,060 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rennes to win52.4%

Draw25.4%

Auxerre to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Rennes lead at half-time34.0%

Level at half-time41.7%

Auxerre lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Rennes ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead66.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1060 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rennes: at least 12Actual: 11
Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Rennes: at least 5Actual: 6
Auxerre: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rennes score1.72

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.08

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.