Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 8

Paris Saint Germain–Strasbourg

3–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 17 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: D. Doué)
26'StrasbourgJ. Panichelli (assist: G. Doue)
41'StrasbourgDiego Moreira (assist: V. Barco)
49'StrasbourgJ. Panichelli (assist: Diego Moreira)
58'Paris Saint GermainGonçalo Ramos (penalty)
79'Paris Saint Germain

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Strasbourg
21	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
783	Passes	309
717	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.26 · Strasbourg 0.85. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 21 · Strasbourg 12; on target 9 and 7.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Clement Turpin, France→

0.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.98 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win69.1%

Draw18.5%

Strasbourg to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time41.5%

Strasbourg lead at half-time14.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level85.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Strasbourg ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 12
Strasbourg: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 4
Strasbourg: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.26

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score0.85

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–010.0%1–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.