Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 7

Le Havre–Rennes

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'RennesB. Embolo (assist: Esteban Lepaul)
29'RennesEsteban Lepaul
45'Le HavreIssa Soumaré (penalty)
79'Le HavreR. Ndiaye (assist: G. Kyeremeh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Rennes
10	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
390	Passes	544
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.41 · Rennes 1.47. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Le Havre 10 · Rennes 9; on target 2 and 3.
Rennes kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Jeremie Pignard, France→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Rennes to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Le Havre, 1.44 for Rennes.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,051 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win30.0%

Draw27.9%

Rennes to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Le Havre lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time41.7%

Rennes lead at half-time34.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level65.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Rennes ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1051 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 13
Rennes: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Le Havre: at least 3Actual: 3
Rennes: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.41

Attack: Le Havre score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rennes score1.47

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.7%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.