Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 7

Auxerre–Lens

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 19:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'LensO. Edouard (assist: Adrien Thomasson)
61'AuxerreF. Sierralta
73'LensI. Ganiou · red card
90'LensA. Sima (assist: Adrien Thomasson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Auxerre		Lens
18	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
514	Passes	397
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Auxerre 1.19 · Lens 1.48. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Auxerre 18 · Lens 7; on target 2 and 4.
Auxerre kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

François Letexier, France→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Auxerre, 1.61 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (X2 — draw or Lens win).
These values were computed from 1,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Auxerre to win26.3%

Draw26.6%

Lens to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	21

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Auxerre lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time43.8%

Lens lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Auxerre ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Lens ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 10
Lens: at least 12Actual: 21

Corners

Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 2
Lens: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Auxerre score1.19

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lens concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.48

Attack: Lens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–210.4%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.