Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 7

Stade Brestois 29–Nantes

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Nantes
17	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	0
9	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
388	Passes	390
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.74 · Nantes 1.10. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 17 · Nantes 6; on target 5 and 0.

Referee

Gael Angoula, France→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.02 for Nantes.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,048 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win50.3%

Draw26.8%

Nantes to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

Nantes lead at half-time21.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level78.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Nantes ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1048 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 11
Nantes: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 5Actual: 12
Nantes: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.74

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nantes score1.10

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.8%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.