Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 6

Lille–Lyon

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'LyonTyler Morton (assist: N. Tagliafico)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Lyon
14	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
429	Passes	369
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.73 · Lyon 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Lille 14 · Lyon 5; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Mathieu Vernice, France→

9.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “Lyon to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Lille, 1.32 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,042 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win42.2%

Draw26.7%

Lyon to win31.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	24

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lille lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Lyon lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lille ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Lyon ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1042 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lille: at least 11Actual: 20
Lyon: at least 12Actual: 24

Corners

Lille: at least 5Actual: 3
Lyon: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.73

Attack: Lille score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.30

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.