Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 4

Marseille–Lorient

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 September 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LorientD. Yongwa · red card
13'MarseilleM. Greenwood (penalty)
20'MarseilleBenjamin Pavard (assist: M. Greenwood)
33'MarseilleA. Gomes
90'MarseilleN. Aguerd (assist: A. Vermeeren)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Marseille		Lorient
15	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
800	Passes	306
746	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Marseille 2.37 · Lorient 1.05. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Marseille 15 · Lorient 4; on target 8 and 1.
Marseille kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

T. Leonard→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.0%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Marseille, 0.81 for Lorient.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — Marseille win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,019 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Marseille to win71.0%

Draw18.6%

Lorient to win10.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–0

Marseille lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time44.7%

Lorient lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Marseille ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Lorient ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1019 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Marseille: at least 11Actual: 18
Lorient: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Marseille: at least 5
Lorient: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Marseille score2.37

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Lorient concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lorient score1.05

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.6%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.