La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Real Betis–Levante

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli
45'LevanteCarlos Espí (assist: Pablo Martínez)
68'Real BetisPablo Fornals

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Levante
18	Shots	15
8	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
618	Passes	333
562	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.86 · Levante 1.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Betis 18 · Levante 15; on target 8 and 7.
Real Betis kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Busquets→

5.89

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “Levante to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Real Betis, 1.43 for Levante.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win41.6%

Draw25.9%

Levante to win32.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Betis lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time40.2%

Levante lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Levante ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 11Actual: 11
Levante: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Real Betis: at least 5Actual: 4
Levante: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.86

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levante score1.00

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–19.8%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.