La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Espanyol–Real Sociedad

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Real SociedadO. Óskarsson (assist: Sergio Gómez)
65'EspanyolRoberto Fernández (assist: Pere Milla)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Espanyol		Real Sociedad
17	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
406	Passes	410
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Espanyol 1.47 · Real Sociedad 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Espanyol 17 · Real Sociedad 9; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

J. Munuera→

3.60

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Espanyol to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Espanyol, 1.40 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Espanyol to win39.6%

Draw26.6%

Real Sociedad to win33.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Espanyol lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time45.1%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Espanyol ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Espanyol: at least 12Actual: 11
Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Espanyol: at least 4Actual: 3
Real Sociedad: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Espanyol score1.47

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.25

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.6%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.