La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Celta Vigo–Sevilla

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Celta VigoIlaix Moriba (assist: Fer López)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Sevilla
12	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
531	Passes	435
475	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.71 · Sevilla 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Celta Vigo 12 · Sevilla 9; on target 3 and 2.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

F. Maeso→

3.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Celta Vigo, 0.90 for Sevilla.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Celta Vigo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win51.2%

Draw27.7%

Sevilla to win21.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Celta Vigo lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Sevilla lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Sevilla ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 11
Sevilla: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 4
Sevilla: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.71

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sevilla score0.93

Attack: Sevilla score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–012.8%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.