La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Barcelona–Real Betis

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'BarcelonaRaphinha
62'BarcelonaRaphinha
69'Real BetisIsco (penalty)
74'BarcelonaJoão Cancelo (assist: Pedri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Real Betis
15	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
705	Passes	411
639	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.32 · Real Betis 0.84. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Barcelona 15 · Real Betis 7; on target 9 and 2.
Barcelona kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

G. Cuadra→

3.25

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.8%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.65 for Barcelona, 1.07 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,509 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win71.8%

Draw16.7%

Real Betis to win11.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Barcelona lead at half-time66.8%

Level at half-time28.8%

Real Betis lead at half-time4.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level95.6%

12 — not level at half-time71.2%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead33.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1509 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 7
Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Barcelona: at least 6Actual: 6
Real Betis: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.32

Attack: Barcelona score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score0.84

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.0%3–18.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.