La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Rayo Vallecano–Villarreal

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Rayo VallecanoSergio Camello (assist: A. Rațiu)
47'Rayo VallecanoAlemão (assist: O. Trejo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Villarreal
15	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
474	Passes	401
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.37 · Villarreal 1.30. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 15 · Villarreal 11; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

R. De Burgos→

3.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.20 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win48.3%

Draw25.9%

Villarreal to win25.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time42.7%

Villarreal lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 12Actual: 12
Villarreal: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 5Actual: 1
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.37

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.30

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.5%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.