La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Osasuna–Espanyol

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'EspanyolC. Romero
49'OsasunaVíctor Muñoz (assist: F. Boyomo)
53'EspanyolK. Garcia (assist: T. Dolan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Espanyol
24	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
68%	Possession	32%
515	Passes	252
446	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.58 · Espanyol 0.99. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Osasuna 24 · Espanyol 7; on target 8 and 3.
Osasuna kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Ortiz→

3.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Osasuna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Osasuna, 0.95 for Espanyol.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Osasuna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win46.1%

Draw29.2%

Espanyol to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Osasuna lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time44.8%

Espanyol lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Espanyol ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 10
Espanyol: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Osasuna: at least 4Actual: 9
Espanyol: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.58

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Espanyol score0.99

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.7%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.