La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Oviedo–Alaves

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'AlavesT. Martinez (assist: A. Rebbach)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Alaves
8	Shots	7
0	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
553	Passes	248
488	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.23 · Alaves 1.20. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Oviedo 8 · Alaves 7; on target 0 and 1.
Oviedo kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

J. Munuera→

3.56

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Alaves to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Oviedo, 1.37 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (X2 — draw or Alaves win).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win24.7%

Draw29.3%

Alaves to win46.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Oviedo lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time46.7%

Alaves lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 13
Alaves: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 5
Alaves: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.23

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score1.20

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–112.7%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.