La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Real Sociedad–Valencia

3–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Real SociedadAihen Muñoz (assist: A. Elustondo)
8'ValenciaJavi Guerra (assist: D. Lopez)
22'ValenciaHugo Duro (assist: E. Comert)
60'Real SociedadC. Tarrega (own goal)
63'Real SociedadO. Óskarsson (assist: Mikel Oyarzabal)
70'Valencia

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Valencia
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
5	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
487	Passes	408
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.55 · Valencia 1.13. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Real Sociedad 8 · Valencia 13; on target 3 and 6.
Real Sociedad kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Galech→

3.86

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “Valencia to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Real Sociedad, 1.24 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win40.2%

Draw28.1%

Valencia to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

E. Comert · red card

89'ValenciaG. Rodriguez (assist: A. Almeida)

90'ValenciaJavi Guerra (assist: Thierry Correia)

13	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Sociedad win or draw68.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.9%

X2 — draw or Valencia win59.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Real Sociedad lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time44.1%

Valencia lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 13
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 3
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.55

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.13

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1500 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 150 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.