La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Real Madrid–Oviedo

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 May 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Real MadridGonzalo García (assist: Brahim Díaz)
80'Real MadridJ. Bellingham (assist: Kylian Mbappé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Oviedo
19	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
616	Passes	326
571	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.40 · Oviedo 0.58. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Real Madrid 19 · Oviedo 9; on target 7 and 1.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

R. De Burgos→

4.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.4%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.64 for Real Madrid, 0.76 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,499 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win78.4%

Draw14.5%

Oviedo to win7.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Madrid lead at half-time56.0%

Level at half-time36.9%

Oviedo lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.1%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead44.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1499 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 7
Oviedo: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 7Actual: 4
Oviedo: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.40

Attack: Real Madrid score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score0.58

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%3–010.6%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.