La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Getafe–Mallorca

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Coliseum, Getafe

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'GetafeM. Satriano (assist: A. Nyom)
41'GetafeM. Satriano
63'GetafeZ. Romero (assist: Luis Milla)
65'MallorcaO. Mascarell (assist: Pablo Torre)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Getafe		Mallorca
6	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
313	Passes	494
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Getafe 1.26 · Mallorca 0.96. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Getafe 6 · Mallorca 9; on target 4 and 2.
Mallorca kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

J. Martinez→

4.10

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Getafe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Getafe, 0.87 for Mallorca.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — Getafe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Getafe to win41.1%

Draw32.2%

Mallorca to win26.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Getafe lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time47.2%

Mallorca lead at half-time20.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Getafe ahead or level79.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Mallorca ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Getafe: at least 13Actual: 17
Mallorca: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Getafe: at least 5Actual: 3
Mallorca: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Getafe score1.26

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mallorca score0.96

Attack: Mallorca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–014.6%0–013.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.