La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Alaves–Barcelona

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AlavesI. Diabate (assist: Antonio Blanco)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alaves		Barcelona
9	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
23%	Possession	77%
189	Passes	676
112	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alaves 1.09 · Barcelona 1.89. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Alaves 9 · Barcelona 8; on target 3 and 0.
Barcelona kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

J. Sanchez→

5.04

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “Alaves to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Alaves, 1.70 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alaves to win31.0%

Draw25.4%

Barcelona to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Alaves win or draw56.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Barcelona win69.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Alaves lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Barcelona lead at half-time42.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Alaves ahead or level58.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Barcelona ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alaves: at least 13Actual: 14
Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Alaves: at least 4Actual: 6
Barcelona: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alaves score1.09

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score1.89

Attack: Barcelona score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.9%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1495 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 111 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.