La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Real Betis–Elche

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Real BetisC. Hernández (assist: Pablo Fornals)
41'ElcheH. Fort (assist: Germán Valera)
49'ElcheLéo Pétrot · red card
68'Real BetisPablo Fornals

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Elche
16	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
442	Passes	541
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 2.00 · Elche 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Betis 16 · Elche 8; on target 7 and 2.
Elche kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Diaz→

6.13

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Real Betis, 1.05 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,491 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win59.2%

Draw22.8%

Elche to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Betis lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time39.4%

Elche lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Elche ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1491 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 11Actual: 16
Elche: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Real Betis: at least 4Actual: 8
Elche: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score2.00

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score0.93

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–111.0%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.