La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Celta Vigo–Levante

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Celta VigoFerrán Jutglà (assist: Hugo Álvarez)
43'LevanteK. Arriaga (assist: J. Toljan)
48'Celta VigoFerrán Jutglà (assist: Javier Rueda)
57'LevanteDela (assist: K. Arriaga)
63'LevanteBrugui (assist: Jon Ander Olasagasti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Levante
11	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
582	Passes	423
513	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.82 · Levante 0.99. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Celta Vigo 11 · Levante 14; on target 6 and 6.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Cordero→

4.38

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Celta Vigo, 1.12 for Levante.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Celta Vigo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,490 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win50.1%

Draw25.9%

Levante to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Celta Vigo lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time42.8%

Levante lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Levante ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1490 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 7
Levante: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 4
Levante: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.82

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levante score0.99

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.