La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Rayo Vallecano–Girona

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'Rayo VallecanoAlemão (assist: Unai López)
90'GironaC. Stuani (assist: V. Tsygankov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Girona
18	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
484	Passes	343
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.58 · Girona 1.04. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 18 · Girona 9; on target 5 and 5.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

G. Cuadra→

3.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “Girona to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.17 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,489 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win43.0%

Draw27.9%

Girona to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time46.7%

Girona lead at half-time22.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level77.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Girona ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1489 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 13Actual: 10
Girona: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 5Actual: 9
Girona: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.58

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score1.04

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.8%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.