La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Athletic Club–Valencia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'ValenciaU. Sadiq (assist: L. Rioja)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Valencia
14	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
409	Passes	354
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.54 · Valencia 0.99. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Athletic Club 14 · Valencia 7; on target 4 and 3.
Athletic Club kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Ortiz→

3.57

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Athletic Club, 0.84 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,486 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win57.6%

Draw25.5%

Valencia to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Athletic Club lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time46.5%

Valencia lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1486 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 12Actual: 9
Valencia: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 13
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.54

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score0.99

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–012.9%2–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.