La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Real Sociedad–Real Betis

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Real BetisAntony (assist: Sergi Altimira)
47'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli
79'Real SociedadO. Óskarsson (assist: Sergio Gómez)
90'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal (penalty)
90+6'Real BetisA. Ruibal · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Real Betis
14	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
6	Offsides	4
65%	Possession	35%
601	Passes	319
548	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.49 · Real Betis 1.26. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Real Sociedad 14 · Real Betis 14; on target 6 and 6.
Real Sociedad kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Ruiz→

3.90

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Real Sociedad, 1.47 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,484 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win37.8%

Draw26.4%

Real Betis to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Real Sociedad lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Real Betis lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1484 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 13Actual: 12
Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 4
Real Betis: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.49

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score1.26

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.