La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Atletico Madrid–Celta Vigo

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Celta VigoB. Iglesias (assist: Williot Swedberg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Celta Vigo
20	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	0
2	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
561	Passes	469
505	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.74 · Celta Vigo 1.02. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 20 · Celta Vigo 3; on target 4 and 1.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

I. Galech→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Atletico Madrid, 1.17 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,483 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win51.9%

Draw24.8%

Celta Vigo to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time39.2%

Celta Vigo lead at half-time12.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level87.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Celta Vigo ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1483 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 11
Celta Vigo: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 5
Celta Vigo: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.74

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.02

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.7%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.