La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Sevilla–Espanyol

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'EspanyolT. Dolan (assist: Roberto Fernández)
82'SevillaAndrés Castrín (assist: Djibril Sow)
90'SevillaAkor Adams (assist: A. Sanchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sevilla		Espanyol
21	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
4	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
428	Passes	230
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sevilla 1.43 · Espanyol 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sevilla 21 · Espanyol 10; on target 6 and 5.
Sevilla kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. Alberola→

3.20

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Sevilla to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Sevilla, 0.84 for Espanyol.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Sevilla win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,482 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sevilla to win47.9%

Draw29.8%

Espanyol to win22.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sevilla lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time45.0%

Espanyol lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sevilla ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Espanyol ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1482 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sevilla: at least 13Actual: 14
Espanyol: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Sevilla: at least 5Actual: 4
Espanyol: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sevilla score1.43

Attack: Sevilla score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Espanyol score1.11

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–014.5%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.