La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Elche–Alaves

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'AlavesT. Martinez (penalty)
72'ElcheÁ. Rodríguez (assist: Josan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Elche		Alaves
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
462	Passes	252
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Elche 1.48 · Alaves 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Elche 16 · Alaves 12; on target 5 and 4.
Elche kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Busquets→

5.86

yellows per match

0.57

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Elche to win”. Second comes “Alaves to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Elche, 1.18 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,481 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Elche to win43.1%

Draw27.8%

Alaves to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Elche win or draw70.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Alaves win56.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Elche lead at half-time33.2%

Level at half-time43.9%

Alaves lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Elche ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead66.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1481 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Elche: at least 12Actual: 15
Alaves: at least 15Actual: 13

Corners

Elche: at least 4Actual: 7
Alaves: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Elche score1.48

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score1.25

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.9%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1481 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.