La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Celta Vigo–Elche

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Celta VigoHugo Álvarez (assist: Javier Rueda)
30'Celta VigoI. Aspas (assist: Ferrán Jutglà)
82'ElcheAndré Silva (penalty)
85'Celta VigoB. Iglesias (assist: Williot Swedberg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Elche
6	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
306	Passes	594
230	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.98 · Elche 0.91. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Celta Vigo 6 · Elche 15; on target 4 and 4.
Elche kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

R. De Burgos→

4.13

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Celta Vigo, 1.04 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Celta Vigo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,475 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win56.2%

Draw24.2%

Elche to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Celta Vigo lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time43.3%

Elche lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Elche ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1475 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 12Actual: 14
Elche: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 4
Elche: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.98

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score0.91

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.