La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Osasuna–Sevilla

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'SevillaN. Maupay (assist: Djibril Sow)
80'OsasunaRaúl García
90'OsasunaCatena (assist: M. Gomez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Sevilla
15	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
484	Passes	310
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.65 · Sevilla 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Osasuna 15 · Sevilla 8; on target 7 and 2.
Osasuna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

M. Ortiz→

3.50

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Osasuna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Osasuna, 0.92 for Sevilla.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Osasuna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,467 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win50.0%

Draw28.0%

Sevilla to win22.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Osasuna lead at half-time48.1%

Level at half-time39.8%

Sevilla lead at half-time12.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level87.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Sevilla ahead51.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1467 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 11
Sevilla: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Osasuna: at least 4Actual: 4
Sevilla: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.65

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sevilla score0.93

Attack: Sevilla score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–012.7%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.