La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Valencia–Girona

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'ValenciaL. Ramazani (assist: Javi Guerra)
59'ValenciaU. Sadiq (assist: José Gayà)
63'GironaJ. Roca (assist: Alejandro Francés)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valencia		Girona
12	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
4	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
320	Passes	561
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valencia 1.59 · Girona 1.02. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Valencia 12 · Girona 7; on target 3 and 4.
Girona kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Ruiz→

3.89

yellows per match

0.56

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Valencia to win”. Second comes “Girona to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Valencia, 1.16 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,463 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valencia to win42.2%

Draw28.2%

Girona to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Valencia lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time47.9%

Girona lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Valencia ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Girona ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1463 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valencia: at least 12Actual: 22
Girona: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Valencia: at least 5Actual: 4
Girona: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valencia score1.59

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score1.02

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–09.8%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.