La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Oviedo–Villarreal

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'VillarrealN. Pépé (penalty)
69'OviedoI. Chaira

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Villarreal
15	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
543	Passes	409
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.12 · Villarreal 1.51. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Oviedo 15 · Villarreal 7; on target 4 and 3.
Oviedo kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

R. De Burgos→

4.43

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Oviedo to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Oviedo, 1.42 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,459 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win29.3%

Draw28.3%

Villarreal to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Oviedo lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time43.3%

Villarreal lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1459 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 9
Villarreal: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Oviedo: at least 4
Villarreal: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.12

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.51

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–19.9%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.