La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Real Madrid–Alaves

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: A. Guler)
50'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: F. Valverde)
90'AlavesT. Martinez (assist: Guevara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Alaves
24	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
631	Passes	399
569	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.30 · Alaves 0.72. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Madrid 24 · Alaves 19; on target 8 and 5.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Martinez→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.1%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.93 for Real Madrid, 0.87 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,452 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win80.1%

Draw13.0%

Alaves to win6.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Madrid lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time38.8%

Alaves lead at half-time10.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level89.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1452 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 14
Alaves: at least 15Actual: 12

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 6Actual: 9
Alaves: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.30

Attack: Real Madrid score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score0.72

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.6%2–09.6%3–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.