La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Athletic Club–Osasuna

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Athletic ClubG. Guruzeta
90+1'Athletic ClubMikel Jauregizar · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Osasuna
7	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
290	Passes	546
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.55 · Osasuna 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Athletic Club 7 · Osasuna 8; on target 2 and 3.
Osasuna kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

V. Garcia→

4.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Athletic Club, 0.98 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,450 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win52.1%

Draw26.5%

Osasuna to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Athletic Club lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time46.2%

Osasuna lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1450 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 11Actual: 12
Osasuna: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 5
Osasuna: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.55

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score0.96

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–011.2%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.