La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Levante–Getafe

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

83'LevanteCarlos Espí (assist: Manu Sánchez)
90+1'GetafeZ. Romero · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Getafe
22	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
398	Passes	233
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.25 · Getafe 1.06. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Levante 22 · Getafe 5; on target 4 and 1.
Levante kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Quintero→

4.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “Getafe to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Levante, 1.04 for Getafe.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,449 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win36.4%

Draw31.4%

Getafe to win32.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	24

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time48.0%

Getafe lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Getafe ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1449 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 12Actual: 12
Getafe: at least 13Actual: 24

Corners

Levante: at least 4Actual: 8
Getafe: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.25

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Getafe score1.06

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.1%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.