La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Celta Vigo–Oviedo

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'OviedoAlberto Reina
45'OviedoFederico Viñas (assist: I. Chaira)
57'OviedoFederico Viñas (assist: T. Fernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Oviedo
9	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
689	Passes	319
593	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.95 · Oviedo 0.76. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Celta Vigo 9 · Oviedo 8; on target 6 and 5.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Ortiz→

3.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Celta Vigo, 0.84 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (1X — Celta Vigo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,447 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win55.1%

Draw26.6%

Oviedo to win18.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Celta Vigo lead at half-time39.3%

Level at half-time44.1%

Oviedo lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead60.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1447 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 9
Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 4
Oviedo: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.95

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score0.76

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–013.3%2–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.