La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Osasuna–Real Betis

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: Héctor Bellerín)
40'OsasunaA. Budimir (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Real Betis
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
454	Passes	449
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.37 · Real Betis 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Osasuna 12 · Real Betis 8; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

M. Sesma→

3.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Osasuna to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Osasuna, 1.18 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,445 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win41.9%

Draw28.2%

Real Betis to win29.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Osasuna win or draw70.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Real Betis win58.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Osasuna lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time40.7%

Real Betis lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1445 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 13Actual: 14
Real Betis: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Osasuna: at least 4Actual: 6
Real Betis: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.37

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score1.24

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.7%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1445 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 144 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.