La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Real Sociedad–Alaves

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'AlavesDuje Ćaleta-Car (own goal)
14'Real SociedadL. Sučić (assist: Barrenetxea)
24'AlavesI. Diabate
27'Real SociedadSivera (own goal)
60'Real SociedadO. Óskarsson (assist: T. Kubo)
90'AlavesL. Boyé (assist: Denis Suárez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Alaves
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
507	Passes	426
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.65 · Alaves 1.02. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Real Sociedad 12 · Alaves 12; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

V. Garcia→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Real Sociedad, 1.08 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Real Sociedad win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,441 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win52.6%

Draw25.4%

Alaves to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Real Sociedad lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time43.6%

Alaves lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1441 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 13Actual: 11
Alaves: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 9
Alaves: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.65

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score1.02

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.