La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Real Madrid–Girona

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Real MadridF. Valverde (assist: Brahim Díaz)
62'GironaT. Lemar (assist: Arnau Martínez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Girona
22	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	2
18	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
600	Passes	390
553	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.40 · Girona 0.71. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Madrid 22 · Girona 10; on target 9 and 2.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Alberola→

3.25

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.0%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.72 for Real Madrid, 1.07 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,440 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win73.0%

Draw16.1%

Girona to win10.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Madrid lead at half-time47.3%

Level at half-time40.5%

Girona lead at half-time12.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level87.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Girona ahead52.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1440 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 10Actual: 9
Girona: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 6Actual: 10
Girona: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.40

Attack: Real Madrid score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Girona's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score0.71

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%3–19.0%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.