La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 29

Real Madrid–Atletico Madrid

3–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Atletico MadridA. Lookman (assist: G. Simeone)
52'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (penalty)
55'Real MadridF. Valverde
66'Atletico MadridNahuel Molina (assist: J. Alvarez)
72'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: T. Alexander-Arnold)
77'Real MadridF. Valverde

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Atletico Madrid
17	Shots	13
10	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
559	Passes	505
508	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 1.80 · Atletico Madrid 1.04. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Real Madrid 17 · Atletico Madrid 13; on target 10 and 7.

Referee

J. Munuera→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “Atletico Madrid to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Real Madrid, 1.34 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,429 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win47.2%

Draw25.1%

Atletico Madrid to win27.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

2	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Real Madrid lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time41.5%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1429 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 8Actual: 2
Atletico Madrid: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 5Actual: 4
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score1.80

Attack: Real Madrid score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.80 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.04

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.3%1–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.