La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 29

Athletic Club–Real Betis

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Athletic ClubD. Vivian (assist: I. Williams)
45'Athletic ClubOihan Sancet (assist: I. Williams)
75'Real BetisPablo Fornals

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Real Betis
11	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
358	Passes	568
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.49 · Real Betis 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Athletic Club 11 · Real Betis 11; on target 6 and 3.
Real Betis kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Ruiz→

4.00

yellows per match

0.71

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Athletic Club, 1.08 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,428 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win47.2%

Draw27.4%

Real Betis to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Athletic Club lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time43.4%

Real Betis lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1428 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 13Actual: 10
Real Betis: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 6
Real Betis: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.49

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score1.11

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.4%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.