La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Real Sociedad–Osasuna

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal (penalty)
28'Real SociedadG. Guedes (assist: Beñat Turrientes)
52'Real SociedadG. Guedes (assist: Beñat Turrientes)
76'OsasunaVíctor Muñoz (assist: Kike Barja)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Osasuna
14	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
459	Passes	462
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.53 · Osasuna 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Real Sociedad 14 · Osasuna 13; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

G. Cuadra→

3.25

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Real Sociedad, 1.06 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Real Sociedad win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,418 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win49.7%

Draw26.7%

Osasuna to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Real Sociedad lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time45.9%

Osasuna lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 16
Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 3
Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.53

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score1.05

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.5%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.