La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Barcelona–Sevilla

5–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'BarcelonaRaphinha (penalty)
21'BarcelonaRaphinha (penalty)
38'BarcelonaDani Olmo
45'SevillaOso (assist: J. Sanchez)
51'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: Fermín)
60'BarcelonaJoão Cancelo
90'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Sevilla
13	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
61%	Possession	39%
616	Passes	380
550	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.80 · Sevilla 0.56. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Barcelona 13 · Sevilla 8; on target 8 and 4.
Barcelona kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Martinez→

5.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.1%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.64 for Barcelona, 0.91 for Sevilla.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,416 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win75.1%

Draw15.7%

Sevilla to win9.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Barcelona lead at half-time67.4%

Level at half-time29.3%

Sevilla lead at half-time3.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level96.7%

12 — not level at half-time70.7%

X2 — level or Sevilla ahead32.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1416 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 9Actual: 5
Sevilla: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Barcelona: at least 6Actual: 3
Sevilla: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.80

Attack: Barcelona score 81% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sevilla score0.56

Attack: Sevilla score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.2%2–110.0%3–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.