La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Barcelona–Villarreal

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (assist: Fermín)
37'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (assist: Fermín)
49'VillarrealP. Gueye (assist: S. Mouriño)
69'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (assist: Pedri)
90'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: J. Koundé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Villarreal
19	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	5
74%	Possession	26%
778	Passes	271
711	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.28 · Villarreal 0.98. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Barcelona 19 · Villarreal 6; on target 8 and 1.
Barcelona kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

I. Diaz→

7.33

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.72 for Barcelona, 1.22 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,391 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win69.7%

Draw17.0%

Villarreal to win13.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Barcelona lead at half-time47.4%

Level at half-time37.1%

Villarreal lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead52.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1391 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 11
Villarreal: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Barcelona: at least 6Actual: 3
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.28

Attack: Barcelona score 82% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score0.98

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.6%3–18.8%2–07.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.