La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Levante–Alaves

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'AlavesV. Parada · red card
88'LevanteCarlos Espí
90'LevanteCarlos Espí (assist: K. Etta Eyong)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Alaves
22	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
363	Passes	390
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.32 · Alaves 1.16. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Levante 22 · Alaves 17; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

F. Maeso→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.5%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “Alaves to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Levante, 1.17 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,389 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win35.5%

Draw30.0%

Alaves to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time48.9%

Alaves lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1389 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 12Actual: 14
Alaves: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Levante: at least 4Actual: 10
Alaves: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.32

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score1.16

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.4%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.