La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Atletico Madrid–Espanyol

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'EspanyolJofre
21'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: Marcos Llorente)
49'Atletico MadridG. Simeone (assist: Álex Baena)
58'Atletico MadridA. Lookman (assist: M. Ruggeri)
72'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: M. Ruggeri)
80'EspanyolEdu Expósito

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Espanyol
18	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
662	Passes	415
571	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.80 · Espanyol 0.77. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Atletico Madrid 18 · Espanyol 8; on target 9 and 2.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Ruiz→

3.25

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.7%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Atletico Madrid, 0.78 for Espanyol.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,383 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win67.7%

Draw20.7%

Espanyol to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time52.4%

Level at half-time39.9%

Espanyol lead at half-time7.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level92.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Espanyol ahead47.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1383 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 11Actual: 8
Espanyol: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 6Actual: 5
Espanyol: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.80

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Espanyol score0.77

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%1–011.4%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.